Look at this weather forecast:
Not pretty. Again? Really?
The mosquitoes are going to eat us alive. We are going to have a big wet mess again if this really happens. Here lately, it seems that we’ve ended up in an endless do-loop cycle of “unprecedented” weather events.
Not happy about this. I was going to get to see my grand-baby this weekend, but now the likelihood of the roads being “underwater” between here and there is growing in a predictable way – but you know, they will never say positively one way or the other – they will interpret the data and make their predictions.
But just look at the facts, yourself. Presently, the Brazos River continues to rise, as it still has not reached flood stage. Evacuations are ongoing. Today. We are waiting on another report but in the meantime, the map here on the USGS WaterWatch (#WaterWatch) site has the latest info for you to visualize the WHERE of all of this wacked-out weather.
Here is what the forecasters from our NWS are saying as of the latest forecast before this writing:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1042 am CDT Wednesday Jun 1 2016Update…
atmosphere is very moist with precipitable water of 1.7 to 1.8″
this morning but this will be increasing throughout the afternoon
and Thursday. Troughing along the coast to just off of crp will
slowly lift north and help with storm development. Today expecting
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms and have raised
probability of precipitation accordingly mainly over the central and eastern areas.
Rainfall rates of 2″ per hour already going over Polk/Trinity
counties this morning. Will raise a Flash Flood Watch across the
area through Friday afternoon but may need extending.45
&&
Previous discussion… /issued /
Discussion…
southeastern Texas is readying itself for another few days of
precipitation brought on by periods of locally moderate to heavy
rainfall that will likely induce or aggravate regional flash and
river flooding. All of the synoptic ingredients are in place, from
the gradual spreading of the upper levels as jet level winds become
more diffulent just ahead of the southwestern-settling mid to upper
low to the Stout lower to mid level southeasterly 20-35 knot inflow
feeding inland convection with near 2 inch precipitable waters.
The devil is in the details as they say and this couldn’t be more
true of a idiom than for US over the next several days. Yes,
confidence is mounting that many across the region will experience
a round or three of impressive rainfall (rates) that will again
produce flooding and quite possibly various communities will be
dealing with wind damage from either localized wet downbursts or
weak tornadoes from passing strong thunderstorm clusters. As is
the case with all of these anticipated potential severe weather
events…the question of the exact timing and location of the most
intense weather will go unanswered until either right before its
passage or during the heat of battle itself. Although the vicinity
(unfortunately southwestern-positioned) upper low and subsequent
shortwave disturbances rotating around this main feature will
ultimately be the impetus to inclement weather, it will be the
mesoscale that determines the when and the where of the most
severe rainfall and wind. Or, in other words, it will be that
prior convection that drives future convective behavior and, if we
can better pinpoint this on a 6 hour time line, then we may be
able to more accurately convey a relatively higher confidence with
a 12,or even 24, hour forecast.The target days for the highest rainfall will be from as early as
today through as late as Saturday afternoon. This is the period in
which the upper low currently digging down over the lower U.S.
Southwest and the northern Mexico providences of Sonora and
Chihuahua will nestle itself over Texas, particularly over eastern
or south central state. With the highly moist ‘condition’ally
unstable air mass already in place over the region, this scenario
is the worse possible for US as it places eastern Texas under the
best upper exhaust pattern for series of disturbances (the ‘conditional’)
to generate lift and maintain an environment conducive to the
formation of continual clusters of thunderstorms to slowly travel
(train) over the area. Not expecting overall storm motion to be
all that fast within a forecast weakly steered lower layer. As of
now, the forecast calls for likely rain/storm chances commencing
today and persisting through the weekend. There will be periods of
either very light or no precipitation, especially if an mesoscale convective system travels
across the County Warning Area and creates subsidence in its wake. A model and
National center blend equates to an areawide 5 day quantitative precipitation forecast of between
4 to 5 inches, locally higher with amounts of greater than 10
inches certainly not out of the question. Of course, it will be
those 1 inch amounts over 15 minutes across more urbanized landscapes
that will be of the highest threat versus double digit rainfall
over a span of several days.On a major side note…the city (iah) has not yet recorded a 90f
degree day this year. If this forecast pans out and overcast with
rainfall plagues the region through the weekend, then the city
would likely not meet 90f for the remainder of the week. This
would place 2016 in the top 5 if 90f was not met by Sunday (the
latest day was on June 15th, 1897). 31
