Please NOTE that portions of this section are not “mobile phone” friendly – some of the included linked dashboards and data visualizations do not play friendly on small mobile devices. We can’t help it except by excluding them, which wouldn’t make sense, so hop over to your PC or tablet and take a look 😉
Today we start the diary entries for “post” national emergency declaration. Read on.
13-March-2020
The first thing to note is that this is Friday, the 13th of March. Friday the 13th. So, in that regard, we also show that the map has suddenly been showing some large spikes in reported cases – the graphs reflect some of the details.
The map below is constantly being updated. This is courtesy of Johns Hopkins University who has taken the lead to put together a dashboard map that has dynamically linked updates to the statistics that are being gathered that feed the ever-refreshing map:
Locally, people are making runs on the stores, freaking out, buying up everything that they can – a sign that this is just now sinking in that they have to “do something” to prepare. Those who don’t believe the scientists that buy into all the denier logic and conspiracy theories are paying attention now that this IS a declared national and state, as well as local emergency — they are totally all over it – it’s definitely a freak-out buying frenzy.
Tomorrow, we’ll give an update. In the meantime, WASH YOUR HANDS and don’t cough on people.
Late news tonight. More activities are being canceled or rescheduled to a later date. Many “wait and see” situations – until we figure out more about this and what it means to us. It is really unprecedented times.
Tomorrow… more as it happens.
This concludes the first post of the pandemic diaries.
-ellenspictures -hope never vanishes-
as long as we’re still on the planet, that is...
good morning. day two. continuing to monitor the situation.
The chart below comes from Dr. Yong-Yeol Ahn, an Indiana University Associate Professor, who is the Director of Undergraduate Studies, in the Informatics Center for Complex Networks and System Research, in Bloomington, Indiana.
This chart gives the context that people need, so as to understand the evolving complex situation going in in the world right now – something unprecedented in modern times.
Despite its morbid nature, we are observing history being made right now.
What is important to note about today is that we take several stances all at the same time, and ask questions repeatedly, and not in the same order:
Will this happen to me and my family? I order those words, as those are core to the initial reaction – then people often reverse the “me” with “family” to be less selfish, in second thoughts.
- How long will this go on until this flattens out and disappears? Then what?
- Will we fare better or worse than those countries who have already begun to peak and level out? Among those are China, and areas in Asia immediately affected. Areas with affected populations such as Europe, Africa, India, and Australasia are in different places within their life-cycles of this outbreak.
- As each cluster goes through the life-cycle, we subsequently see patterns emerge – and we also note differences – which we all need to understand better. Questions are:
- Are the differences in outcomes due to healthcare systems and their sophistication and effectiveness?
- Do attitudes and policies about healthcare affect outcomes?
- Which areas will do better or worse, and why?
- What are the micro details that affect the macro?
- Are these rapidly mutating like a retrovirus?
- Do certain strains, if they exist, affect people differently?
- What about the age demographics of victims who died – or is this a significant factor?
I will be considering these along our journey into this unprecedented time in our history.
The up-sweeping of awareness depending on each person’s point of view is about the reality of the situation sinking in – what does this mean to me and what does this do to my daily routines?
Always, be observant, check out the situations before jumping into them, and again, keep your hands clean – don’t touch your face – and stay out of company with people that may pose risk to you within your demographic (your age and health status).
-Hope Never Vanishes – ellenspictures
14-March-2020 3:57 PM US-CDT
another day and we are still here, still feeling well, still monitoring the situation.
If you look at the map above, the numbers continue to increase. Depending on where you are in the world, as we said, yesterday, people are in varying stages of the life-cycle of the outbreak wherever they are. This points to having a huge geographic component, naturally. Also, there is a huge demographic component that breaks out into multi-faceted aspects.
- Age risk.
- Age related behaviors and attitudes.
- Local customs and norms.
- How readily people absorb the serious nature of this outbreak. This is important.
How people readily absorb the serious nature of this outbreak. This is probably one of the most controllable aspects of prevention (that and washing hands and avoiding sick people). This can be a function of self-belief, awareness of what is going on outside of your own sphere, threat awareness and response (personal response), whether people are resistant to others telling them what to do (problems with authority), or the “I don’t really care what happens to me…” (maybe not aware that becoming ill with this will affect your whole family, who will not leave you outside in the woods to pass on).
Whoever decides that they are “special” and that this does not affect them and the risk that this attitude carries is significant. This is where belief systems start to realign. It is slowly sinking in that going to religious services is not protecting anyone and that, no, your God is not going to keep you from getting this virus. The case in South Korea of this points out that this is not going to be tolerated. Yes, there are some people who believe that if they get the virus, it’s God’s will, but that is a whole other kettle of fish. We could deviate off into the recent events of the past several years and just look upon this as another plank in the Armageddon theory, but we won’t go there, at least not today. At least locally, it appears that most houses of worship are heeding the advice to limit large gatherings, and in some localities this has become temporary law under emergency declarations.
Last night, announcements were made here locally about how the grocery retailers are going to try to control the frenzy of panic buyers, buying up everything as if this is the end of the world. Hours open limitations to enable retailers to restock. Limits on quantities to restrict reselling at outrageous prices. It’s a classic story that can be told in economics classes in the future.
Despite advice, people are wiping out supplies of things that really don’t make much sense in many areas, and in some circumstances, people have been caught buying up supplies and price gouging online – and these individuals just said they wanted to make some fast bucks… Terrible people whose attitudes are products of the current economy, moral ignorance, a lack of ethics – but we will not diverge into that discussion. They were nabbed and the online retailers are beginning to impose rules and gain a small amount of ground in controlling this – but, they are not there yet. Sadly. Only the regular supply chain participants will get this into line – the producers and the retailers (normal ones) offering essentials at normal pricing. That will be the only way.
Advice is for two weeks supply of food and resources for families. What we’ve seen is that people are buying up as if it is the end of the world. Strange what people are buying and the variances from store to store. At some point all of this will level out. We just do not know when right now as some places are just now coming into their start in the life cycle of the outbreak.
We can only watch China and see how that is resolving to get any sense of how long this takes – and that is our only present statistical watch.
15-March-2020
Hope Never Vanishes -ellenspictures-
skipped a day chronicling this pandemic. a lot has happened, and continues to happen. the planetary nature of this is just beginning to sink into many peoples’ brains. some who began preparation weeks ago are watching the newly aware go through the same paces. this is the actuality of the life cycle nature of this whole epic chapter in the story of our planet and the human inhabitants of this earth.
Today is much better than yesterday when this visualization of the US Stock Market was all shades of red. This is screenshot is of realtime information from our friends at Finviz.
The apple cart of the planet is truly continuing to be upset.
The chart below shows the financial impact that has occurred in in a very short period of time – again from our friends at Finviz, who do a very awesome job of giving a visual perspective as well as all sorts of real-time statistics. Looking at mid-February, at the precipitous drop thereafter to where we got to 19,736, on the 16th and this has come back up slowly today – but we’ve done some heavy duty upsie-downies over the month since the high, then the drop began – highest was 29,568 – so, we’ve dropped nearly 10,000 points since this all began. The high occurred AFTER China announced on January 8th that there was a newly discovered lethal coronavirus not yet well understood. The American President did not respond quickly enough, nor did he take advantage of early testing provided by the World Health Organization.
Effectively, being in both denial of the potential impact, and working hard to downplay recent impeachment hearings, the efforts were not focused to halt everything else and lead the nation, listening to experts and developing a strategy to mitigate the impact. What we visualize below is where we sit in what economists call the beginning of a recession.
When all is said and done, this might more closely resemble a worldwide depression. People think that something weird is going on with the machinations of the market. The numbers are not following previous trends. The New York Times has an article about this here, and another one here. Not being any sort of person who is anything but an observer, the longer we live, the more wisdom and insight we get about this stuff. It definitely does not mean anything but that we need to keep aware. Knee-jerk reactions will not help anyone right now.
People in their upper 80’s will remember vividly what the Great Depression was like. It occurred between the years of 1929 and 1939. There are many theories about the causes.
Few people are alive that would remember the impact of the Spanish Flu that began in 1918. As well, it likely was a precursory contributor to the Great Depression, but this has not been widely discussed in this perspective. Any event that kills so many people would likely cause issues with productivity and overall health in the economies of the world. Illness sucks up resources as well as takes away human beings who are all contributors of some sort to the economic layer of the planet. World War I and World War II had impacts both before and after.
switching gears a bit to the human aspects to remember as we go through this uncharted territory.
I heard the song, We Are Not Helpless, yesterday, by Stephen Stills, one of my favorite musicians, ever, that you can listen to in the YouTube linked above. Listen to the words carefully. It has incredible relevance today. There are other videos out there on YouTube, of this song — and some have ads.
A personal note: I saw him play live in a small venue back in the early 1980’s a bit over ten years after he recorded this song. The CSNY group members were highly visionary. They are all still around, despite challenges with the physical health of some of the members, and other things that go with being in that business. What is worrisome is that they are all of the ages falling into the demographics of people who are most susceptible to this virus. That gives anxiety and saddens a lot of us. We pray for their well being throughout this time.
If you are in that over 60 demographic – stay at home. But remember, “We are not helpless…” and tell those younger folk that say OKBOOMER to you, to “go suck an egg”. Without us around, they will be saying, “who can tell us about this that happened back then?” as I do often say about family history, about my own parents as I miss them both very much, and about my grandparents, who provided so much of that knowledge and insight to me back then when they were still around.
Will do a better job of updating tomorrow. Stay healthy out there.
Hope Never Vanishes, -ellenspictures- March 17, 2020
it was a busy day. every day brings changes that re-adjust our perspectives on this planetary event.
OK folks, in your favorite sci-fi movie, when the aliens do the “stealth” attack, it always begins with it starting somewhere, and people…
- …start being attacked somehow (pick from robots, scary alien monsters, things that get under your skin (literally), things that get injected into some part of your body or a body cavity, alien abductions where they “probe” you, wipe your memories, then redeposit you back where you were, going “huh? what just happened?” or not… – examples include Alien, The Invasion of the Body Snatchers, Thing, War of the Worlds, The Day the Earth Stood Still, etc.
- …mention that something weird is going on – usually one:many people start telling others, and they are accused of being “paranoid” or “imagining things” or “makin’ shit up” or whatever and then it happens in waves… examples include Signs, The Stand, Independence Day
- …sense there is some sort of change in the atmosphere and people notice it – uh. oh.
- or there is an anticipated event that has made itself known that it will happen but everyone needs to figure out where and when it will happen and what will happen and on and on and on…
There are literally hundreds of alien themed movies, more disaster end-of-the world movies that go into sub-categories to numerous to list.
But today, life is imitating art. The last item we mentioned – it’s like that. It’s like the big weird thing that will come, but you really don’t know exactly how it will affect you or be effected upon you or yours, but you get news that it’s affecting others in certain ways – and your mind keeps looking for the hook that leads you to thinking more narrowly about what you might expect… This virus. It’s out there. One of us could get it. When that happens, if it does, then the course of our lives will change and the dendritic effect of this makes things really uncertain.
Multiple factors coming together to create huge change. Disease threat. Financial threat. Death threat. And then there are the crazies out there, who in somewhat “normal” times are pretty crazy, and with all of the extra stressors, they may just come unhinged – and they may do this in groups – and that’s why it is worrisome to hear that guns and ammo are selling out. Reading that was disturbing.
financials look like this but this changes by the minute:
We are charged every day with adjusting to the danger in our midst. A danger which can show no signs, until maybe you realize, after something happens to you, that you were exposed to it. Microscopic diseases – well, most are microscopic by nature anyway, but teeny warriors that viruses and bacteria are – on and the “fun gi’s” too – all of this attacks and in its will to survive, munches and destroys. The difference between those and the other enemy is that it is inherent in some of us due to different causes. That is the split cell process gone wild.
So, what to watch today will be if today is the day that the world goes over the quarter-million confirmed cases mark. We are presently around 230K cases, at this moment in the official count of the number of confirmed cases world-wide. This changes as results come in to the WHO and the CDC, and numbers are automatically updated to charts.
It has taken just a few days to get into this territory. The financial markets are epileptic. Trading is now 100% electronic. Wall Street floors being closed are as quiet as a church mouse.
Yet, in my household, we are all trying to work. One of us has an outdoor job – but, even that has been severely restricted.
In our world of family and friends, we have those in our midst who are over 60 (this author included). In our family, we have the little ones, teens, university aged, young parents, parents and grandparents – plus aunts, uncles, and cousins of various degrees.
At some point all of this will pass along, and whoever is left will face the next days – a re-adjusted world, having gone through as close to a worldwide disaster as we’ve seen in many decades. The shock of 9/11 sent spasms – but, this is different – it’s more invisible, and you cannot duck – you just have to hunker down and try to avoid it.
That’s it for today – March 19, 2020
Hope Never Vanishes -ellenspictures-
just watched the number of cases globally to go over half a million. the constant worry about this is going to be the new normal.
So, mainly, we are adjusting to what the world is like when it is under assault from something that has effects on everything external to us, and that in turn affects us internally in our own environment. People are giving where they can give because they know that others are losing and sacrificing – and becoming ill – and that there are no standards for handling this in countries that don’t have standards – or the standards are messed up – like ours.
And we are also, some of us more than others, recognizing that a country needs a a competent leader and we do not have one – he is the least competent leader with the fewest number of skills and capabilities of anyone to do this job. I could do this job better, and that’s not saying much. My dog could do this job better. She’s not afflicted with a psychological profile that is the opposite of what it takes. Please God, let us survive this.
Hope Never Vanishes -ellenspictures-
March 20, 2020
Hejira
It’s required to get out and walk in our wooded paths because if you stay cooped-up too long, you start getting weird – like the guy in The Shining. Yeah. We aren’t going to be like that. Plus, we don’t have a maze right outside. That’s a good thing.
The news today isn’t any better than yesterday, as we might expect, and the dire nature of it all is something that we all need to understand, but at the same time, something to which we have to guard against reacting in strange ways, as that only contributes to the dire aspects. I know that that was a complicated way to say something. Just try to be calm.
The problem with all of these statistics is that they really are not consistently reported. But that really at this point does not matter when we are trying to track trends. Trending up is what is important to know. Flattening is important. And when the trending begins to go down. That is really important.
This is a classic multi-variate analysis when we don’t know what all the variables are and we do know that more will be coming. Yesterday, Italy surpassed Hubei Provence with deaths, with Iran coming in third place. The situation in Spain is fast approaching Iran’s and other European countries are starting to have problems.
The one that is interesting in the world is South Korea – they jumped on lock-downs, and so far, their death rate is not jumping up – they have 102 deaths in 8,799 cases so far, with 1,540 recovered. That’s the ratio that should be a goal – that is 1.16% for those who want to do the math on the death rate for South Korea at present. They learned from their neighbors, obviously, what not to do, and what to do.
Right now, the USA is on the steep upward curve of cases and what follows. We have a bizarre set of circumstances with many disconnects which does not bode well for outcomes. Our local leaders are trying to take leadership where the void of national leadership exists, or is at best confusing. Kudos to those who are stepping up to take the lead. In the meantime, we will try to say what is truth, or at least give opinions here that lend to that.
Stay well. Keep distance. Shelter in place whenever possible. Don’t be stupid. Don’t be one who thinks “this won’t happen to me (us)”, because the moment you think that… it will.
Remember, “microscopic invaders do not play fair.” Truth -ellenspictures-
Hope Never Vanishes, -ellenspictures–
March 21, 2020
Here we are. Still here. Still nobody in the family has acquired the virus. Praise God. Yet we feel like there is a big storm, gaining strength offshore, just growing until it swallows us… then spits us out (what is left of us) on the other side. Yet, it is not a storm. It is not an alien craft from outer space. It’s of our earth – a virus that hop-skipped over from some animal to us humans. We know by now that these tiny invaders go through humans until they have no where else to go, causing misery and damage, and death for those too weak to withstand the onslaught. That is what we are told by those who are studying this pandemic, and this virus that has caused it, real-time. They are all still learning, trying to figure all this out, at least, at warp-speed.
Here we are just trying to stay underground as much as possible – but, like any good zombie story, we still have to go out and get food and necessities, and we are still defining what those are, and what “safety” is related to the acquisition. In the meantime, people are losing work, losing pay, and losing money because they have no way to replenish what they had. All the makings of future civil unrest if the authorities (leaders) do not maintain control. Period. As bad as it gets, as desperate as it gets, the main thing and the ugly thing is that there will need to be some control maintained over this – and people need direction. They need clarity. If they do not have clarity, they begin to interpret on their own. When this happens, people begin to question other people, and fend for themselves.
Again, this is why there MUST be leadership – not this BOZO who is the great pretender, and his entourage of family and asshole buddies that are also pretenders. Huge mistake allowing that, if anyone did – and, yes, they did. They have allowed the drunk uncle to steer the car off the road. He who has his mind on himself ONLY, and dimly on his family – only when they can shore him up… I can’t even imagine the scenarios…
But today, we now have worldwide, coming up on 1.1 MILLION cases confirmed – estimates are that this number could be three to four times as many if certain countries were honest in their reporting… Kinda suspicious that certain ones would just be flat on new cases day on day – no sir, not likely, seeing what we are seeing in the numbers. We see the increases at such a low rate would be unrealistic – additions would be expected to be flat for a long time…
Worldwide, we are seeing the failing of poor healthcare systems, including the one in the USA. Where the imposed social distancing happened too late, combined with the lack of planning, the lack of supplies, and the lack of imposing strict rules and lock-downs, we are seeing the outcomes unfold – and we are just beginning this journey – there is the potential and likelihood that because this was not aggressively addressed, the orange man’s dream of re-opening the country by Easter has been dashed, and his expectations that anytime in the next few months this will happen are growing darker by the minute.
So we wait. We watch. We continue to hunker-down. We PRAY that the substrate holds up. We pray that people are gracious and generous of heart. We pray that we see the humanity continue to rise above this. We pray for those who are alone, who have little, and who are facing this disease and death by themselves – whether they are separated from their family because of hospitalization, of distance, or of estrangement – we pray for them during this uncertain time.
This is NOT anything that we’ve dealt with in over 100 years. The 1918 outbreak was the most severe proportionally to the world as this is and this one will likely exceed in it’s devastating impact. We have more people in more areas of the world, and many are poor and starving, and under huge stress ahead of this – the planet will be forever changed by this. Again, yet – we are tiny by comparison to the universe of our existence – it is just that we feel this and we do not have the association with any other beings that do.
We feel alone in this exercise of discovering the solution to this. We have templates, but none are exactly fitting right now. We only know how to fight by giving support to those who acquire this illness and there is a lot of stabbing around in the dark, trying different combinations, and not quite understanding if something worked, or the person would be coming out on the other side anyway. No science has prove anything one way or the other. Lots of rumors. Lots of hope. Lots of uncertainty, yet.
Here are the numbers – not updated for today, yet. But the situation in graphs and colors gives insight.
Hope Never Vanishes -ellenspictures- April 3, 2020
Almost two weeks later.
We’ve more than doubled in confirmed cases. The current global death rate is now at least 6.3% – although the number of confirmed cases is suspected to not cover cases where people have mild or no symptoms – and this additional number could drive the death rate down, if it will ever be known. Only widely administered antibody testing will enable us to understand how widespread this disease was in the end – and that feat would be impossible to accomplish. For practicalities, it is hitting some people very hard, and some people so lightly that they don’t even feel that they’ve been ill. That is one weird virus.
We merely need to understand that the virus does not “think” or have intelligence as we know it – it merely wants to survive until it is depleted.
The USA alone has tested over three-million people. On the East Coast, COVID-19 is continuing to explode through the states from Washington, DC to Boston – and in the cities in the US, hotspots exist – across the country. Queens in NYC, alone has nearly 35,000 confirmed cases as of today. That number will increase by tomorrow, no doubt.
In the USA, there are 26.7K deaths so far. Harris County is doing well, with 4,097 confirmed cases and 58 deaths so far – a 1.42% fatality rate, below the National rate, which currently sits at 4.24%. Likely, that rate is pushed up by the seemingly high death rates in the NYC boroughs – Queens death rate stands at 6.25% today. Los Angeles, by contrast, has a death rate of 3.85% – the wider spaced areas, obviously give a better chance to those who contract this virus, than those who live in closed in buildings with density of occupancy being higher, and potentially unsound HVAC systems.
Being of African American race, and being poor, is contributing to higher death rates and deadly outcomes in cities. This disease is more contagious than flu, and proving to be as deadly as the 1918 Spanish Influenza – it could exceed this when the end of this pandemic finally arrives – currently, not forecast to be for a number of months, and possibly years according to some scientists who are working with the live data models.
At any rate, as the time into this thing goes on, we are still trying to understand it better, what it means to us long-term and how it will continue to affect our daily lives into the future.
April 16, 2020
Hope Never Vanishes -ellenspictures-
A couple of weeks ago, I posted here. Things continue to change.
As can be seen in the data graphics and maps above, there are great amounts of diversity in how this is playing out, across the countries of the world. This diversity is likely attributable to a still, as yet to be determined number of factors and variations – the classic multi-variate impact of some new worldwide threat. It will not be exactly the same for all humans. On our planet, humans do not live in little boxes made of the same materials, eat the same things, breathe the same air constituents, drink the same water with the same constituents, or have the same levels of activity. We can cut that many ways. The demographers, the virologists, the infectious disease people, the doctors on the front lines, nurses, physician practitioners, and people themselves can all tell a different story about their respective experiences in their respective geography.
Lots of these stories make it into the news. Lots of perspectives are expressed in social media and through interviews by journalists. But one thing is certain, the compare and contrast machine is in high gear. Each day, new data suggests new aspects to this pandemic, whether it be the effects of the disease itself, the impact on local and global economies, the diversities of people and the resulting impact on daily lives – the amount of information is stunning. The pace of information is unbelievable. During each of our outbreaks since we could report (historically through the history of mankind), there have been plagues and pandemics, relative to the times. With each, came meaning and impact that lasted effectively forever.
No greater threat is there than something that cannot be seen – that selectively kills, based on criteria that we have not yet understood – that will invade without the victim’s knowledge of the invasion until it is too late to stop, if it can be stopped. Some victims are invaded, but never feel the invasion in any sense, but are used as “carriers” to enable the invasion of others. Yet, we are told, the invaders do not have a collective intellect with a strategic plan and tactical process – we just know that this invader wants to multiply, eat, shit, and leave to invade more, or be left dead in its victims, spent at the end of its life-cycle. The invaders do not know that they kill. They aren’t aware of victory or defeat. They just want to survive until they are finished with their perceived end-of-life duties. Birth-growth-death, lather-rinse-repeat.
We the chosen victims, after the invaders crossing over from their last victim species into ours, are wide and far – and large, compared to their past victims. We are very social. We are spread out across the planet. The vectors are multiple opportunities for spread. Airplanes, sea going vessels, and once on land, automobiles, trucks, trains, then crowded places where people live their lives. Understanding the way this moves from person to person gives us the understanding of how to live minimizing risk. It does not eliminate the risk, it simply makes the risk less — because we still are defining our risks.
At times, we feel as if our resolve is weakening. We are not used to this degree of change or of change of this type. Some people, younger people in particular, have only known the “instant gratification” cycles of daily life. Their expectations are that this should end soon. They grow impatient and protest. We should have our lives back! Yet, in reality, government leaders are not going to be able to wave a magic wand and “poof” their lives are back to normal. This is NEVER going to happen. They may say that they are doing this, but they are not. There will be outcomes to show that they do not have this capability. Wait for it.
Because this invader has the impact of also creating starvation in its victims by creating an economic threat – it has effectively cost people their livelihoods – their ability to make money to pay for food, shelter, and clothing which when handed over, supports the livelihoods of others. The invader does not have the intellect to understand this, yet this is on the list of what it does to its victims. It is the effective list of “side-effects” that may be worse than the disease that the invader causes its victims.
At the end of the day, once we can figure out how to effectively measure this threat and what it is doing to the planet, we may only have an inkling of what this invader has done to the planet’s population of humans. No effective way to test 100% will ever be possible. There are issues with testing that are a long list, including the human caused political issues as well as the actual clinical testing effectiveness.
This along with the desire to distort for personal gain has and will continue to impede our ability to fully understand at the end of this, if there is one, the full impact to the world as we knew it. We use the past tense, because change is happening and it is abrupt, disruptive, and permanent – yet we cannot guess what the end-result will be, just yet. Lots of pundits out there that want to tell what that is going to look like, but no one is qualified to actually do that, no matter what they claim. We are stuck to wait and watch and see what happens.
Bottom line, end of day, the willpower to take safety measures is important – because if people become infected, and people are either incapacitated or suffer death, they won’t buy your stuff that you are selling. Maybe consumers need your stuff. Lucky you. Maybe the stuff you sell they figure that they actually don’t need – it was just “nice to have” or your marketing worked in your favor.
Guess what. You may lose customers not because of your stuff, but how you act on re-opening your business – acting like you care about them and their safety – acting like you care that they do NOT get sick while buying your stuff – it will make a difference.
The boneheads that don’t want to wear a mask or stand more than six feet from the other people in your store? Who needs ’em? Let that conclusion bear out. People that have those habits are asking for trouble – but worse than that, they are selfish assholes who don’t care if they or you get sick.
What I say to them is “you must not love your grandma, because how you act would kill your grandma.”
Let’s think about this. If they act like boneheads, and they think that people are making this up, well, someone that they know knows 3 other people at least – those three people know three other people, and what we do know is that AT least, as of today, in the USA alone, there are over 1 million people who have tested positive for the disease. Each carrier in the cycle infects three people – most even before they know they have the virus. Imagine that.
There are possibly another 80% of the population of the US that either have not been tested, or have no symptoms. As of this minute as I write this, 62,870 people in the USA have died of this outbreak in just under three months.
Here is our curve:
People want the economy open. I get it. Sure, I do to. I really miss going to the gym, then going to the grocery store and saying “excuse me” to people who are right next to the item that I want – then having a casual conversation about how good something is. I miss just walking into Starbucks and sitting down, if I want to do that. I miss having the freedom to not be fearful of getting sick – that is what stays in the back of my mind – and when I see people being stupid, it makes me angry that they are potentially harming others.
But an open economy like it was before with a virus on the rampage is like a Zombie Apocalypse in the making.
But these aren’t Zombies. These are the people you know. The ones you party with. The ones whose kids got to school with your kids. The curve is still going UP. What does that mean to you? It means that “it ain’t over”.
Everything you touch could have the virus on it. You wipe your nose, or scratch an itch near your eye – you may have just poked the virus into yourself. No shaking hands. No “haven’t seen you in sooooo long” hugs. None of that.
Think about it.
Looking at people, it’s a pretty good sign which ones may or may not listen. You get my drift.
My words to people are “use patience, go slowly, go cautiously, and stay away from other people (2 meters/6 feet) – wear a mask in a store, wash the heck out of your hands, or use hand sanitizer, and follow the advice of the experts as it changes. Use the noggin (brain) that God gave you. Practice willpower, because this is something that you may have to get to know. It has to become like brushing your teeth. Do it for a month and it becomes a habit.“
don’t be stupid!
please.
Hope Never Vanishes -April 30, 2020 –ellenspictures–
For the duration. How ever long that is.
Trying to review my family and what they did during the 1918-1919 pandemic has been interesting. Grandfather on my Mom’s side was fighting in WWI – still trying to understand where he went – but do understand that he was in active duty from June of 1917 through February of 1919, then was a reservist until September of 1921. What I found in his university year books were dedications to fallen students in 1918 and 1919 attributed to “pneumonia” – which was likely a result of the influenza outbreak – with that number of young people dying of pneumonia, it was not a regular occurrence.
Looking at the family, one death of one relative was in 1918. She my great-grandfather’s eldest sister. She was 77 years old. Her death certificate is not available to say exactly the cause of death. It could have been something else, for all we know.
What does this mean? It might mean that disease was not as it is today – studied, but not at the micro level that it is today. There was not the technology or the communication capability – everything was slowed down – there was radio – there were news papers – but, the focus on understanding the pandemic likely came in a retrospective as the pandemic became apparent and real time information did not have the impact that it has today.
Now we have numbers and news 24X7 in an exhausting bombardment of information through every known outlet as if it is a race and the winner gets “?” what? Every day our perspectives change.
We’ve been pushed into our cocoons, been told that we can’t socialize except by a computer video call or a phone call – or maybe from 12 feet away in someone’s yard – or who knows? If you do that, you are on edge because you might begin to get ill 2-14 days out from that time you did that. If you do it more than once, you have yet another dendritic set of connections to worry about. You can’t know who those people were in contact with, and who they were in contact with, and who they were in contact with on and on and backwards in time until the original “patient zero” for that group is determined, if it ever is.
So here is the rapid-fire of what the situation IS.
Don’t hug. Don’t shake hands. Don’t go out to restaurants and bars. Don’t go to movies. Don’t go to concerts. Don’t go to funerals. Stay inside. Go outside to walk, but wear a mask if you’re around more people. OK to ride a bike, maybe? Fast going by other people. Don’t let them pet your dog. Don’t fly on airplanes unless you have to, and don’t use the bathroom on the flight if you can possibly hold it in – and don’t touch anything – and wear a mask – and stay kind of in away from other people for a couple of weeks on either side of your trip – make sure everything is kept clean – wash your hands as much as you can all the time – until the skin starts to peel – use hand sanitizer after you touch something that someone else has touched – spray it with Lysol maybe? – use bleach if you cannot figure out what else to use but, oh, don’t mix it with anything else and make sure that if someone gets sick you don’t have anything to do with them – and you really really really just have to be fucking careful about everything. And if you get sick, call the doctor, but don’t go to the doctor, and if you can’t breathe or turn blue you have to go to the ER, and when you get there they may sedate you and stick a breathing tube down your throat and all bets are off if you will ever wake up and oh by the way, you may never see your family again and they may never see you ALIVE again ever… you won’t be able to say goodbye, so better say goodbye before you leave for the ER struggling for breath, if you haven’t passed out yet from the long list of other horrible things that this virus can do to you if you get it badly, but hey – only 20% or so get it that badly… maybe less… but they really don’t know why because even healthy young people can get it badly. If you DO happen to come out of the coma you might be neurologically debilitated to the point that you can’t even function and someone will have to take care of you for the rest of your life… oh and your lungs might be the consistency of cardboard and you won’t be able to breathe very well but if you are black and piss off the police they may KNEEL ON YOUR NECK and you tell them you can’t BREATHE and they don’t let up and you die but not of COVID-19, something much more preventable than that and they can’t tell you why they got so VIOLENT and pissed off just that they did and acted out on YOU because you are BLACK and they are out of control brutally treating people who they think they can (get away with this) until now. The so-called fucking president of the country is so unable to lead and calm the country down that right now the cities are seething and crying out because NOTHING has been done to help – he has not helped ANYONE – and only is trying to help himself ONLY to be re-elected because his self-hate is self-love and that is really really fucked UP.
“PARANOIA strikes deep… into your mind it will creep… starts when you’re always afraid… Step out of line, the man comes to take you away… “
Buffalo Springfield – “For What It’s Worth”
And if you can see this you are imagining things.
Hope Never Vanishes – ellenspictures – 8-June-2020
VOTE. That is all we can do at this point. Vote them out. Target every one of them who has supported this inept, demented criminal. Get some calm and normalcy back into leading the country, not dividing it. Sensibility. Civility. Sanity.
It’s September and we are still where we were, just knowing a little bit more than we knew about this virus when it landed here, whenever that was – and the evidence of what can and will happen without a globally coordinated effort to stop it. Of course as humans behave, no one can see the greater good. People are in panic mode. What this virus has brought out of our midst is not the concerted effort to contain it until a vaccine is developed. What it has brought out is not the best of us.
No Leadership. There is No Leadership. No Leadership Allowed. But Dictatorship in the Making? Looks that way.
We needed someone to come in and assess the potential impact to everyone – not just their buddies in big business. The result was lost jobs, lost homes, widespread illness, violence, tension, more tension, and no relief. We have the now entrenched mindset of a disturbing number of people that it’s okay to be an asshole. It’s now “condoned” by the people in the highest offices of the land to disobey advice, to dig in heels, to shoot people you find different from yourself, or who disagree with you and not follow the laws of the nation or the local government.
State Governors get in the way when local governments want to manage the local situation – if the governor just happens to differ in political views, that governor can sabotage local authorities and nobody wins – the public suffer from confusion, exposure to illness – and a whole slew of instructions that are conflicting in nature.
What we have seen is more selfishness. More greed. More outrageous human behavior. What has changed? Nothing.
In the movie The Day the Earth Stood Still, it took someone from outer space to come to Planet Earth to remind everyone that they needed to think of the greater good if they were to survive…
OK, so we don’t have a lot of people who remember that movie, obviously. It was released in 1951. With post-war tones and with the world in the midst of transition, there were a lot of messages in that movie. Things that make you go “hmmmm…”
For this current worldwide threat that has exacerbated other world wide situations, we needed strong leadership to face this threat and deal with it. We didn’t get it. We still do not have it. The results are catastrophic.
Different people respond to life changing situations at differing levels. Some just don’t have the empathy to fill a teaspoon. Right now, we have no leadership who can effect a responsible plan – the leader in place has no empathy whatsoever. He displays forced empathy if someone tells him he must in order to gain something he wants. I can see it in my mind, “Mr. President, you need to say these words and show some emotion when you do that makes people believe that you care.” Sometimes he does, but mostly he does not.
He teaches people how to behave – they mirror him – they respond by saying “it’s a hoax”, or “we don’t wear masks”, or “you can’t make me”, or “the government isn’t going to tell “me” what to do!” Fine. Go to the big crowd thing. Get the virus. But, that doesn’t help everyone else. It spreads the virus even more. This is where we are. A president who refused to wear a mask until he thought he looked “cool” and so he did for a little while. A guy who stands in front of the crowds of people that gather to listen to him and whips up every conceivable notion that directs violence to the opposition, whoever it is at the moment. The more threatened he is, the more he pushes the violent behavior.
We have a lot of movies out there that depict the horrors of pandemics, and those are too close to our current reality for comfort… We have movies where it took some hero to save the planet from instant extinction…
So… if you live in California, or Lake Charles, Louisiana, you kind of understand why the heating of the Earth is kind of impactful Actually, it will create more drought, more disease, more floods, more starvation, more loss of habitat, more destruction of habitable places because the animals and plants that keep it together can’t survive this… and neither will humans be able to very soon, geologically speaking… and getting closer to being in the lifetime range of our grandchildren… The event horizon is coming, folks. COVID is just one reminder.
People now go back to their great-grandparents and grandparents generational history to understand the impact of that great pandemic. Yeah, proportionally speaking, it was really bad. Life was disrupted back then. Schools had to shut down. The events around the school year had to cease. People did not know what to do. They only knew that this was not just some trivial cold or flu bug. They were also in the middle of World War I. That added extra layers of complexity.
This one has the potential to be worse because this isn’t the flu. There are also many more people in the world. There are many ways to spread this that did not exist in 1918. There are many extremes.
We needed a plan led by the one in charge of our greater good. There is no one in charge of our greater good. He’s only responsive to his supporters which means he is president of half (or less) of the nation. He is the Divider In Chief and he likes it that way.
Instead we were dealing with a nationalist, who was in the process of breaking every agreement with global organizations that his predecessors had painstakingly negotiated for decades in the past – in just over two years, the man probably has broken most of these starting with the ones he perceived to be “bad” for the USA – actually, he meant bad for some US based businesses that he thought were his big supporters. He took us out of the Kyoto agreement. He removed us from any agreements with Iran.
He took us out of the World Health Organization in the midst of a critical time where that organization was needed to coordinate all countries in response to the pandemic. He decided he didn’t like them and how they did something and politicized them. He has been threatening to disengage us from the UN. He is systematically taking the US foreign policy relationships apart bit by bit with his minions who are not adept at handling their jobs. He sends minions who are not in official roles to do his private bidding, despite it being against the laws of the USA – and justifies himself after a whistle-blower raises the red flag. He then demands to know the whistle-blower and is heard threatening to take the whistle-blower out (whatever that meant). And who is in the background if not in the foreground? Yes. His friends in Russia.
We have no global appetite anywhere to bring people together to solve this if the largest country in the world hasn’t joined in and it’s leadership has actually pushed away from the table.
Selfish, mentally ill, possibly the most depraved person to occupy the Oval Office ever – this man has single-handedly taken down as many institutions of the United States of America that he can within his power. He has enlisted people to try to figure out ways of doing these things behind the scenes, if possible, until they get caught.
His staff come in and go out in a revolving door – it is difficult to think back when he began just who was there initially. Some staff have changed-over several times. He has run through at least four chiefs of staff. He has had several press secretaries. He has churned through secretaries of defense, homeland security, and the department of energy and continued to churn through under-secretaries and department heads. He has laid-off workers and never filled roles, leaving many departments operating at bare bones budgets and capacity.
He works tirelessly to corrupt every government agency, every Republican leader, everyone he can to turn them into “his instruments” – loyal to him only. He reduces some areas of government to nothing, rendering them unable to do their jobs. Because they do not serve him, in his view, they should not exist.
He has exploited Homeland Security, the Attorney General, the Post Office, the Department of Commerce, the US Senate, the Courts within his reach, the Military, the FDA, the EPA, the NIH, and many others to try to bend them to his will. He has attacked every group who stands up to him. He has attacked those he perceives to be weak links – useless to him.
His face to the public is caustic unless people are there with him to do his bidding or he is signing a bill that he thinks makes him look good – photo ops. He only cares about looking tough and like he’s still in the series, The Apprentice.
To keep his base charged, he has incited riots. He has encouraged extremists. He has provoked violence by directing in general terms, those who he knows will carry it out to make him happy. He has misused the federal law enforcement and military, turning weapons against citizens exercising their first amendment rights under the Constitution.
He has not upheld the Constitution, but distorts it and makes laws up as he goes along until someone files a court action. How he governs is like that of a developing country dictator. He makes general declarations and expects that people worldwide will follow his orders. He has directed other countries to pay for things and they just look at him like he’s nuts – not knowing what to say. He has imposed trade sanctions, tariffs, and re-done agreements – yet he does not realize that US businesses pay the tariffs, not the countries exporting the goods! He really does not know law and history and will not listen to anyone who tries to advise or coach him.
He communicates to countries asking to buy them, just like that – when these are countries not businesses, but organized democracies. He is the “crazy dictator” wannabe who is doing his best to tear down the foundations and structures of the United States of America.
He has no respect for global bodies that try to dissolve lines and unite their people – instead he divides everyone and influences division and totalitarianism abroad – every group – every one he decides could get in his way. He does cruel things and then blames people in the past who could not possibly have done these things – unless there is a time machine that all of us don’t know about.
He deflects criticism by blaming people or acting as if he has never heard of them. A common behavior when he turns against someone is to become a stranger first, then dismiss them. “I don’t really know ______”, when _______ has donated millions to his campaign and is known to have had many personal interactions with him.
Physically, he is in the worst condition of any president since FDR, who contracted a virus that consequently killed him. He often struggles on camera – staggering, falling, trying to hold objects – obviously showing signs of some physical issues going on.
Mentally, he is struggling like Ronald Reagan at the end of his presidency – but staff can’t seem to keep him from going on camera and not following a script – he often does not, then gets confused in his words – and gets angry and lashes out – responding to the world’s being aware of his “issues”, he flatly denies that he is having them, sounding even more screwed-up, because in the denial, he can’t even frame that right. He is clearly confused and addled.
Some speculate he is heavily medicated. Some say he has had a stroke. Some say he is in some stage of dementia, whatever that is. But, his physicians continue to go on camera and state that he is 100% healthy, never better.
He forgets about the pandemic until he is reminded that it is still an issue, then tries to play it up as an achievement – a high number of cases and deaths.
At the base of all of the pandemic’s lack of management is the president’s denial of science and scientific methodologies. He thinks that if he throws money at it and demands a timeline for completion that this will make it so. Vaccines. He makes claims that they will be ready by X, when those producing it say, maybe X next year… maybe.
Because he does not believe in science he sounds like a nut job when he discusses this in public – suggesting outlandish treatments, encouraging doctors to use them, and trying to bend the FDA to approve them, claiming he has the brilliance of a doctor and unexpressed talents. He also supports “doctors” that are quacks.
Every day there is some new drama and new confusion all centered around HIM. This is unprecedented. And his intention is to go down fighting if he goes down. Some believe that he will challenge any election result where he is not the winner, causing it to drag on for months by court filings and appeals. The one true fact is that his presidency will end regardless of the settled winner – contrary to his belief, he cannot just stay. The movers will come and pack up the boxes and the Constitutional process will happen. There will be investigations. It will be difficult on the American Public.
We have it with much evidence from comprehensive investigations and intelligence findings that he is colluding with outside governments to try to remain in power. We don’t know their goals, but with Russia, we know the goal is to disrupt, internally divide, and weaken their adversaries using any means possible. This is repeated over and over. We know that if they do not get their way, they kill who is responsible – strange illnesses that turn out to be poisonings by signature toxins. The stuff from movies. History has shown us this over and over and over – and most recently, we have seen this again. They do not mess around.
All of what the man is trying to achieve is for the sake of some “deal” that he expects to make him a “billionaire”. The man is a petite self-imagined ruler in the tiny land in his fantasy world. In his younger days, it was partying and conquering girls for sex and adoration. When those went sour, his tack was to pay them off – to manage his affairs or have them managed by a “fixer”. The fixer went to jail – left on the hook to pay for the sins of the boss. The fixer was not the sharpest knife in the drawer, as often criminal organizations are not. It’s the Godfather redux.
Books have been written. The problem is getting the right people to read the books understand what is fact, take it seriously, and act – but, someone or something has gotten to them and they remain silent.
So, we have to do our best to turn out in such high numbers that we overwhelm him by our votes. We must do this. If we vote by mail, we vote at the earliest time, and if possible, drive our vote to the county voting administrator’s office. If we feel uncertain about that, we pack on a mask, and go vote early ASAP. It’s a risk, but we do it. We have to get this man out.
September 8, 2020 – hope never vanishes