Category: Tracking the Weather

  • Big Storms Everywhere. The context of climate change and our human condition.

    Big Storms Everywhere. The context of climate change and our human condition.

    https://earth.nullschool.net

    “Hi, I’m Gabrielle”

    Today, New Zealand finds itself dealing with their “storm of the century” (literally), while having just experienced a flood event that in human recollection or record of anyone on these islands can say ever happened before. Two extreme weather events within a month’s time, after a lot of heat and rain over the summertime there is indicative of climate changes that have been showing themselves over the past few years.

    Even the International Terminal at the Auckland Airport flooded in the recent flooding event, which is unheard of, normally in most developed countries. Albeit, the airport itself is located by the water, onshore, usually the water drains out to the waters of Manukau Harbor – but with the combination of volumes of rain within a short time period and ground saturation, the “normal” drainage apparently didn’t work. Now they are facing yet another threat of not only large volumes of precipitation, but gale force winds that exceeds what they typically experience in storms, as well.

    Our family and friends there haven’t experienced our infamous Gulf of Mexico hurricanes unless they have been where a hurricane has happened. Ours are of the variety that people experience in warm water environments, which typically New Zealand is not a warm water ocean environment… The understanding of what it is like to go through a storm like that is not within the working experience knowledge base of most NZ citizens unless they have lived in those warm ocean environments. I really hate that this is happening to them. Praying for all there…

    Experience builds expectations and anxieties.

    For me, my first experience was Hurricane Alicia, and one of horror and awe all mixed up – horror at how hard the wind was blowing and things outside were blowing around without our having any sort of control over any of it and awe that this could go on for hours and hours and hours and hours… without stopping, with torrential rain flooding everything – and we lived in the woods, not on the ocean where storm surge can happen and literally swamp with flood water everything everywhere it comes. As a kid, we moved to Houston just after Hurricane Carla destroyed homes and businesses, plus literally MOVED a bridge, the physics of wind-force and water combination at work. I remember Dad pointing this out as we were going to Galveston and had to take a detour over another bridge to get to the island.

    Floridians live with this threat, as do people all along the Gulf of Mexico coast – all the islands in the Caribbean – plus the Atlantic Coastal communities – we are all in the cross-hairs of the West African disturbances that move across the Atlantic in the warm weather months and gain energy to become full blown hurricanes sometimes. In the past decade, or since even longer back than that, the hurricane activity has been greater than ever, in particular those that go into Florida and up the Atlantic coast… Since 2017, when we experienced Harvey, a historic flooding event, more our area has been hit with the polar events several times in 2021, 2022, and 2023. These are weather extremes due to melting polar ice. Would not be surprised if the ice melts in Antarctica have something to do with the latitudes changing for strong tropical cyclones. I’m no meteorologist, but I am an observer of facts.

    So, I think this will be a learning experience for many there who are pretty confident that “they’ve got this”.

    There is a full-on emergency declaration. Already the storm Gabrielle is doing damage and wreaking havoc, and there is yet to discover more… this is ongoing. This is far from over. The sustained nature of wind and rain over time is what wears against the strength of objects and fills up areas with the weight of water. It is all about physics. Tragedy is unfolding as this is written.

    Riding the storm out

    If you are prepared physically and mentally you get through storms, most every time, without freaking out and doing something that is not smart, due to panic. In rare exceptions, such as tsunamis after earthquakes, which really aren’t the same type of storms, this might not be the case, but nonetheless the main thing is to not panic. I try not to panic, but my autonomic response sometimes kicks in and I have to calm myself down and “think”, but not over think the situation – analysts tend to over think, which is a professional hazard at times. Practical thinking and first aid, triage training, and survival skills like you learn as a boy scout or girl scout are handy. It’s handling the unexpected with aplomb that is the true skill.

    Even in areas where there are earthquakes and tsunamis, preparation measures are given to people who live there. Some listen and do prepare, some do not. People in both cases when they don’t prepare, don’t make it out alive. That’s a fact.

    Also, there are cases if you live where there are lots of big trees and a big tree falls on the shelter where you are and smashes it. Well, that is likely either a God thing or being in the wrong place at the wrong time, which is either a God thing or bad luck. In that case, it might have been an idea to look at the big trees, the direction that the wind would be coming from, and calculate a trajectory if the tree falls – which room would it fall onto? I wouldn’t be hanging out in that room… But then, that’s my take on preparing. Tape windows, go get a bunch of food to last three or more days (if the storm is a bad-ass storm), get phone chargers and phones charged up – make sure the car has gas, yada yada yada…

    Sometimes, people do not prepare and are overwhelmed by what happens – when the problems with storms are predictable, but maybe in probability, this is indeterminable ahead of time – it is the “what is the worst that can happen” scenario to prepare for. And if the worst doesn’t happen, it’s always good to not have the feeling, “well that was silly”, as sometimes, and there are times, when it isn’t silly at all – first time experiences are only the first to add to the knowledge base that will be built after multiple experiences over time. Probably it is wise to ask someone who has had multiple storm experiences, if you can sit through the stories and glean the good bits…

    The pit into which some people fall includes having an attitude about “things being silly”, with too much bravado, which can lead to doing stupid stuff or under-preparing, which is the equivalent of doing stupid stuff. At any rate, being sensible and listening to weather people and those who are in charge of preparedness is the best combination to stay safe. Bottom line – when the storm is all over and it didn’t affect you adversely, you can count your lucky stars.

    All of this being said, I truly don’t like the experience of riding out a hurricane or cyclone, whichever term you use – it is the episode of intense wind and rain leading to big messes to clean up if not life threatening situations. Who does? It’s usually a time of high anxiety and the usual distractions are unavailable. Time to get out the cards, puzzles, and board games! Get out the candles and the fire-starter devices. Practice using them! If you are using matches, make sure they’re still good if they have been sitting a long time. Being prepared for extremes in temperature is also a good idea even if it’s been warm lately, with big cyclone-type storms, the temperatures can drop down to chilly for the duration, especially if it is wet. Wet + wind can introduce wind chill.

    Ice storms and tornadoes are included in this array, as well. Don’t like those either.

    Flavors and variations of weather events. Ice storms. Tornadoes aka twisters. Typhoons. Any weather events that wreak destruction… Then the other types of earth events like droughts, and fires, and the above mentioned earthquakes… then don’t forget volcanoes. Lots in Mother Nature’s bag of nasty surprises. It’s how we view it, though. In her context her clock is geological. In ours, it’s on our wrists or on a wall… It is philosophical and existential. It is essentially, the nature of things. Nonetheless, it is our reality.

    The test is the recovery.

    After the storm has passed through, or ended, the recovery begins. Initially, the search for victims and damage – those who were overwhelmed by mother nature, and those who tragically may have succumbed – missing or found to be gone – these test our faith. Why here? Why now? Why this person? Why this devastation? It is the huge power of nature that is underestimated by humans. It is why our earliest ancestors looked to the heavens or to gods in their culture for answers.

    But, here we are. Humans still occupy the planet in great numbers despite Mother Nature and in spite of ourselves, at least at this moment in time. We who survive recover, rebuild in time, and renew. It is what was before and what is after.

    closeup photo of sprout
    Photo by PhotoMIX Company on Pexels.com

    Missing spans of nice weather which of course, we are finding we have less and less these days. I guess that is why we call this climate change, “the weather ain’t what it used to be” or was it ever?

    If we change our timescale and ask the universal super powers that be, they would say “in geological timescale, you have not seen the worst come back, but you will.” That is the scary thought that we all avoid having.

    The dinosaurs could tell us… but, oh – they can’t. Um. There you go.

  • Brrrr. Old Man Winter is At It Again.

    Brrrr. Old Man Winter is At It Again.

    When I was a kid, we definitely had winter. “Snow Days” occurred usually in January. It wasn’t a huge deal. Rarely, did we lose power, if ever. I’m not sure how this worked, but I can’t recall sitting in the dark freezing cold. Maybe we were just lucky through those times. It was not advisable to drive when the roads were icy, so mostly, we didn’t, but sometimes when we were going somewhere and we hit winter weather, well, we (Dad) just had to soldier on.

    I remember once, going out to West Texas to my grandparents’ house for some holiday, probably Thanksgiving or Christmas, and we hit a snowstorm head on. It was night time. It was crazy scary, but being that Dad grew up in Oklahoma, he’d seen much worse. In these situations, it isn’t always us that is the issue, but usually “them” that do not have experience driving in snow or ice and do stupid driver tricks skidding out or doing donuts in the middle of the road, out of control.

    Once we were going down to Houston for my grandmother’s birthday party and there was black ice on the freeway. Two cars in front of us collided, then parted just in time for us to shoot the gap, my Dad driving, just escaping a bad accident. We turned around and went home on the feeder road. It was scary for the passengers, that’s for sure.

    Many times in other places I have lived, there have been snowy and icy roads that had to be traversed. Usually, we got through it, but not always was it pleasant, and usually, it was treacherous – but, we were very, very lucky most of the time.

    Once again we have the onslaught of cold weather with a lot of people impacted by this. I am grateful we have, this time, been less impacted. As we know it could be worse, and it still could happen in the next couple of months. We’re not out of the woods yet.

  • Very cold and crazy. At the holidays. Is it a gift?

    Very cold and crazy. At the holidays. Is it a gift?

    “White Dog on Snow” – The 2021 Freezeageddon – we are missing this girl this year.

    This holiday season started off as normally as it could. But then. The super-winter-weather-bomb cyclone event named Elliot (like a winter Hurricane) – the swooping down of the Arctic Vortex like this has caused havoc for millions of people this holiday:

    That is where it is today – and let’s just say people in places along the yellow and above that are freezing their asses off or buried in snow today.

    So, as you might expect, this is doing a big number on the US power-grid. Thanks to the tracking by the good folks at United States Power Outage Map – you can see for yourself at any given moment. Today’s winners are North Carolina, Tennessee, and Maine, with South Carolina and New York as runner-ups. Our famous Texas ERCOT grid, which promised full capacity is apparently still not there yet – oops. To be fair, part of Texas is actually in the MISO grid, but you would never hear the “dear gubner of Texas” say that out loud.

    Today’s power outage winners – a high level view of who is in and who is out of power on the morning of Christmas Eve 2022. Yesterday it was awful as Elliot has moved eastward across the USA – leaving freezing cold temps and/or precipitation for some.

    An important bit of research was published in September of 2021 in Science Magazine Linking Arctic variability and change with extreme winter weather in the United States | Science – with an explanatory infographic that tells the historical story of the Arctic and the influence of the big melting that is causing the shifts.

    So, where is Santa in all this?

    Current 10:47 AM look at where Santa has been already and where he and his sleigh are headed next…according to the Google Santa Tracker https://santatracker.google.com/

    Again, Google’s Santa Tracker gives us the view of where Santa is at the given moment on Christmas Eve having already begun his journey over 24 hours ago… Looks like he is over Russia at this hour. We’re not going to explain why “Vladdie P” isn’t getting a visit. That’s just obvious. But all the good children will certainly have the magic of Christmas wherever possible. Let’s hope that Santa encounters no issues as he works his way west to complete his journey! He has lots of experience, so we would expect that he knows the ropes, despite the climate change woes.

    For us here, it is small gatherings with family and friends. Colder than usual. No precipitation. Just riding the waves of memories of Christmases past and per my usual I hope for Peace on Earth and for people to get along better than they have been of late (and I’m talking about the whole wide world, not that I’m doing anything but feeding my hopes into some sort of pleading prayer stream…).

    OK, I was excited about something, but not sure what Dad was thinking!

    I am moved to write when I get to this time of year. Lots of the flowing memories and anxieties that come with the celebration of what this is all about.

    Sweet Jesus

    I am thankful for the gifts of the people in my life. For those who have left us, I am grateful that at least I had them in my life for the period of time that was meant to be a part of my role in this ongoing theater of life on Planet Earth. I am missing my people who are not here. Every year I miss them all the time. Guess this is just part of living…

    Happy Holidays to All!