Category: Environment

  • it’s happening again. groundhog day.  we can’t really do much about it. stupid weather.

    it’s happening again. groundhog day. we can’t really do much about it. stupid weather.

    Look at this weather forecast:

    IMG_7892Not pretty.  Again?  Really?

    The mosquitoes are going to eat us alive.  We are going to have a big wet mess again if this really happens.  Here lately, it seems that we’ve ended up in an endless do-loop cycle of “unprecedented” weather events.

    Not happy about this.  I was going to get to see my grand-baby this weekend, but now the likelihood of the roads being “underwater” between here and there is growing in a predictable way – but you know, they will never say positively one way or the other – they will interpret the data and make their predictions.

    But just look at the facts, yourself.  Presently, the Brazos River continues to rise, as it still has not reached flood stage.  Evacuations are ongoing.  Today.  We are waiting on another report but in the meantime, the map here on the USGS WaterWatch (#WaterWatch) site has the latest info for you to visualize the WHERE of all of this wacked-out weather.

    Here is what the forecasters from our NWS are saying as of the latest forecast before this writing:

    Area forecast discussion
    National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
    1042 am CDT Wednesday Jun 1 2016

    Update…
    atmosphere is very moist with precipitable water of 1.7 to 1.8″
    this morning but this will be increasing throughout the afternoon
    and Thursday. Troughing along the coast to just off of crp will
    slowly lift north and help with storm development. Today expecting
    scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms and have raised
    probability of precipitation accordingly mainly over the central and eastern areas.
    Rainfall rates of 2″ per hour already going over Polk/Trinity
    counties this morning. Will raise a Flash Flood Watch across the
    area through Friday afternoon but may need extending.

    45

    &&

    Previous discussion… /issued /

    Discussion…
    southeastern Texas is readying itself for another few days of
    precipitation brought on by periods of locally moderate to heavy
    rainfall that will likely induce or aggravate regional flash and
    river flooding. All of the synoptic ingredients are in place, from
    the gradual spreading of the upper levels as jet level winds become
    more diffulent just ahead of the southwestern-settling mid to upper
    low to the Stout lower to mid level southeasterly 20-35 knot inflow
    feeding inland convection with near 2 inch precipitable waters.
    The devil is in the details as they say and this couldn’t be more
    true of a idiom than for US over the next several days. Yes,
    confidence is mounting that many across the region will experience
    a round or three of impressive rainfall (rates) that will again
    produce flooding and quite possibly various communities will be
    dealing with wind damage from either localized wet downbursts or
    weak tornadoes from passing strong thunderstorm clusters. As is
    the case with all of these anticipated potential severe weather
    events…the question of the exact timing and location of the most
    intense weather will go unanswered until either right before its
    passage or during the heat of battle itself. Although the vicinity
    (unfortunately southwestern-positioned) upper low and subsequent
    shortwave disturbances rotating around this main feature will
    ultimately be the impetus to inclement weather, it will be the
    mesoscale that determines the when and the where of the most
    severe rainfall and wind. Or, in other words, it will be that
    prior convection that drives future convective behavior and, if we
    can better pinpoint this on a 6 hour time line, then we may be
    able to more accurately convey a relatively higher confidence with
    a 12,or even 24, hour forecast.

    The target days for the highest rainfall will be from as early as
    today through as late as Saturday afternoon. This is the period in
    which the upper low currently digging down over the lower U.S.
    Southwest and the northern Mexico providences of Sonora and
    Chihuahua will nestle itself over Texas, particularly over eastern
    or south central state. With the highly moist ‘condition’ally
    unstable air mass already in place over the region, this scenario
    is the worse possible for US as it places eastern Texas under the
    best upper exhaust pattern for series of disturbances (the ‘conditional’)
    to generate lift and maintain an environment conducive to the
    formation of continual clusters of thunderstorms to slowly travel
    (train) over the area. Not expecting overall storm motion to be
    all that fast within a forecast weakly steered lower layer. As of
    now, the forecast calls for likely rain/storm chances commencing
    today and persisting through the weekend. There will be periods of
    either very light or no precipitation, especially if an mesoscale convective system travels
    across the County Warning Area and creates subsidence in its wake. A model and
    National center blend equates to an areawide 5 day quantitative precipitation forecast of between
    4 to 5 inches, locally higher with amounts of greater than 10
    inches certainly not out of the question. Of course, it will be
    those 1 inch amounts over 15 minutes across more urbanized landscapes
    that will be of the highest threat versus double digit rainfall
    over a span of several days.

    On a major side note…the city (iah) has not yet recorded a 90f
    degree day this year. If this forecast pans out and overcast with
    rainfall plagues the region through the weekend, then the city
    would likely not meet 90f for the remainder of the week. This
    would place 2016 in the top 5 if 90f was not met by Sunday (the
    latest day was on June 15th, 1897). 31

  • dark shadows. raindrops. new dimensions of running in storms.  welcome to our world.

    dark shadows. raindrops. new dimensions of running in storms. welcome to our world.

    person feet dipping on pool
    Photo by Sarah Schorer on Pexels.com

    It has been raining again – this year, it made the IronMan pretty rough for people, I imagine – lightning bolts or heat and humidity?  Not sure which is better.

    We did not have our usual deal of going out and cheering on the folks – I’m not a lightning bolt sort of girl… But, I was with them in spirit, for sure – hoping that they weren’t hurt and that they were able to achieve their goals.

    I saw the tail end of a “doco” that was talking about this place in Venezuela, South America that was picked-up on satellite with these unusually bright flashes – turns out it is intense storms caused by lots of unusual electrical activity – investigations generated an array of possible causes, including the possibility that gasses that come from bio-degradation of organic matter in Lake Maracaibo – in the region of the storm activity contain a kind of a cauldron of “bio-stew” – something that scientists have discussed at times as “primordial goo” – well, there ya go.  It appears to be a laboratory – Mother Nature as a mad scientist of sorts.

    Separate of that, it has been the warmest April on record.  Those non-believers out there who insist that climate science is a bunch of bunk really are going to be struggling, as no matter what – things are getting warmer and the storms more frequent – with sound effects and vivid lightning coming with, at odd times of the year, even.  After all, looking back on the holiday cards of your grandparents did you see tornadic thunderstorms on the backdrop behind the quaint houses and churches in those old scenes?  I think not.  Santa didn’t wear Hawaiian shirts, either.  But he might in the future…

     

  • as slow as Christmas…but, it is not slow anymore.

    as slow as Christmas…but, it is not slow anymore.

    DCF 1.0

    Astoundingly fast the time goes these days.  When we were kids, we used to say “as slow as Christmas” when we thought that something was taking a long time.  We were always waiting for Christmas to come around again.  The dramatic lead up to the climax of the eve before the big day.  Loved “The Christmas Story” movie about the kid and the bee-bee gun – absolutely one of the best Christmas movies out there…  Likely, the kid thought that things were indeed moving slowly as he wished and hoped that Santa would deliver his dream!

    I was running the other day and had these thoughts, as I do, about this phenomenon of time moving faster as you get older.  Well, unfortunately, I forgot it (mostly), as you do, when your endorphins go back down to normal levels after the run.  Shit.  I hate it when that happens.  I lose some of my best insights that way.  Sometimes I record these, but then I get nervous and feel like I am on radio.  It completely upchucks the thoughts and garbles the original flow.  I wish I could invent something that could record these important insights in my brain and not look like really screwed up garbage.

    I don’t have the comic strip anymore, but years ago, Dagwood Bumstead (of the comic strip Blondie) awakened and opened up a notepad on his bed stand after having a brilliant flash of insight when he was dreaming – and what he found the next day was a bunch of nonsensical words written down, much to his chagrin.  That would be me!

    I get a little depressed that my time on earth is now within that realm of “realizable”, as it now has the potential to be no longer than my longest marriage relationship, statistically speaking.  In addition to this, we all, as we age, begin to see each year more people taking off due to unexpected circumstances and early-onset illnesses.  Big fat finger in your face, reminding you that you are not in control here.

    My neighbor told me the story of asking her dad on his 70th birthday, “Dad, how does it feel to be 70?”  She said he was not happy being asked that question.  He told her to consider how she would feel if she knew that she had more years behind her than the number ahead.  I had a similar experience with my Dad when he was in his sixties.  He got really grumpy when I made a bad attempt to be humorous about his age.  My bad judgment and lack of understanding got me into some deep doo-doo on that one…

    Yep, it’s a fact.  No matter which flavor of religious affiliation you are, generally speaking, you are mainly being prepared for leaving the planet as you listen to sermons and read about what prophets say.  This time of year, the joyousness of the season is infectious and people of various faiths do celebrate The Holidays together as much as they can because it is positive and cheery – everyone feels good, mostly, when they get out and party in a positive way with people.

    As an analyst, looking at religions across the spectrum, the preparation for “what’s next” in the human experience and birth-life-death-re-birth (or not) is the one common denominator.  We see that some religions more focus on the here and now, and some focus on the within more than the without, and some focus on the after, more than the now, but the departure in all its forms, of leaving the body in which we are living presents a major event horizon that triggers something else in the belief systems of major and minor religious philosophies.  Besides Death, Birth is that other one single event that is viewed as important, as it begins a cycle of life on the planet.  It is all wondrous and never solved definitively, likely by design by someone or some thing.

    People dedicate their entire lives to the solution.  They go into the forest by certain trees and sometimes get so far in that they lose sight of the original point that they are trying to solve – or rather the mystery – maybe it is not a problem, just a condition, or a situation.  Whatever.

    IMG_4601The trees still have green leaves on them where I live.  Some of these are supposed to have fallen off, or at least be brown or some other color besides green.  We have constant change in our environment that poses big world problems or problems of the planet.  We watched the movie, “Interstellar”, the other night.  It was one of the physics and math will solve this if someone smart enough can do this in time types of movies with the added aspect of the explorers going outside to look for a new planet, just in case, even though most people will be dead back home because of the time warps and distance issues.

    You know – it’s enough to entertain you, and make you a little anxious.  Half-facts, with the seasonings and flavorings borrowed from Contact, Mad Max, and other such movies.  We didn’t see aliens – they were missing.  But then ahead of this, there was the boring war movie that had the alien spaceship and when I am falling asleep watching movies, they tend to merge into one plot.  Or I get distracted and the movie isn’t that meaningful, so I go surf the net, or go on Facebook.  I mean, how many ways can you slice and dice the plot lines?  It’s all about the same thing.

    Redux.  Is there anything new under the sun?  No, not really.  It is, as I said in one of my other posts, all matter just recomposed and reconfigured.  Stuff just isn’t produced – it is reconstituted.  Think about it.  How would anything really leave and how would anything else come in?  Hmmmm.  Think of the options.  According to some folks who are “in the know” – it hasn’t happened that anyone can prove…  At least not yet, right Agent Scully?

    So, what was I saying?  Slower than Christmas?  Whoever thought that up was just trying to be clever.  I am with you.

    splashWhat I do know is that Humor IS required!  Without it, you are sunk.  “Bottom of the ocean…”

    And before we know it, it will be Christmas Day.  We should celebrate something – any aspect of our lives that has reflected positively and gives us hope – definitely, it is a time to reflect on new beginnings and try to not think about the anxieties of the world.

    What do I want for Christmas?  Twenty-four hours of no television, of good conversation that is not negative, with reflections of good times and gratefulness – peace for a day.  Longer if possible.  That is what I would like for Christmas this year.  Oh, and good health.  Yeah, that would be good – for the entire family.

    We will save prosperity wishes for New Years!

    Happy Holidays from the family!

    SonnyAndBabyWill
    December 1979.